CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-05-17T09:24:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2013 May 17 1307 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30517
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 May 2013, 1305UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 May 2013 until 19 May 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2013 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 013
COMMENT:Two M-class flares in past 24h, both from NOAA AR 1748. The first one
occurred on May 16 at 21:53 UT, with intensity M1.3. The second flare was
an M3.2 and peaked at 08:57 UT on May 17. This AR has still potential for
producing X class flares. It maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration, even though some fragmentation is seen in the trailing
region and there are some indications that polarities are separating within
the delta spot penumbra. The M3.2 flare of today was related to radio
bursts and a CME. SWAP detected clear dimmings and an EIT wave around NOAA
AR1748. There are no LACO data available yet, but a CME is indeed seen in
STEREO COR2 data, it can be Earth directed. The speed in COR2-B is
calculated to be 1300 km/s, making a possible arrival to the Earth on May
19 around noon. Protons levels (10MeV) are still above threshold, stable
around 3 protons/cm2-s-sr. Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to
active, due to long lasting periods of slow solar wind with sustained mild
negative Bz (around -5nT). These are not related to the arrival of the CME
of May 15, which is still not visible in ACE data, and may still arrive
later today and produce storm levels (estimated max K = 6). As a reminder,
this series of CMEs related to AR 1748 had a source region within 30
degrees of the solar limb, which reduces their possibility of arrival to
the Earth to around 30%.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 124, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 May 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 145
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST : 024
ESTIMATED AP : 023
ESTIMATED ISN : 142, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
17 0843 0857 0919 N12E57 M3.2 2B 450 75/1748 IV/2II/2 
END
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